The Cubs are not in a good spot right now. Their offense has been terrible. Ryan Theriot has the best batting average on the team with .282. Supposed leadoff man Alfonso Soriano is hitting .095 in the last 7 days. I think that no matter if the Cubs turn it around a bit or not, I think the Cubs have some pieces that they can sell as we approach the trade deadline.

The biggest of the sell candidates is Alfonso Soriano. He started hot this season, but for the last month or so he’s been non-existent at the plate and in the field. It seems like he’s totally disinterested in playing baseball. The whole team has struggled at the dish, but leading off every game with one out is a pretty big handicap. He can’t hit the low slider from the right handed pitchers. And now everyone is throwing him that. He can’t lay off. I think before he proves he’s totally finished, the Cubs should ship him off to some team who thinks he’s the answer to their left field needs. Someone who needs a bat in their outfield to help them make the push to the post-season. Right now I think that the Los Angeles Angels might be the best fit for him. He could give them some pop and maybe even bring a little bit of speed to their line-up. I think it’ll have to be a bigger market team to absorb some of his salary.

I actually don’t care too much where he goes. And I think it would be fine if the Cubs paid most, if not all of the rest of his salary this year and some percentage of it for the duration of the contract. I think that Jake Fox or Micah Hoffpauir could fill-in in the field and give a little more consistency at the plate. I’d like to see the Cubs get a handful of prospects for him.

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1. Chicago Cubs – I think the Cubs are far and away the best club in this division. Their improved lineup and consistently good pitching staff (led the majors in strikeouts for the last 8 years) make this a no-brainer. Now, when it comes to the playoffs, my confidence vanishes. Lou and the boys will need to show me that they can win a playoff game before I crown them the kings of baseball. But they have the talent. And they better win it all this year, because the studs on this team are getting a little long in the tooth.
2. Milwaukee Brewers – A pretty fashionable pick here. A good team. Good offense, but they really need to sort out their pitching staff. With young hitters like Braun and Fielder, it’d be a shame to waste that on a team with no pitching. Yovanni Gallardo is one bright spot for Brewers pitching.
3. Cincinnati Reds – I think this team has a chance to challenge for 2nd place, but I just couldn’t make myself pick a Dusty Baker coached team. If Dusty doesn’t ruin the arms of Edison Volquez and Johnny Cueto, the Reds have a solid pitching staff for a long time. Add in a recovered Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo and you’ve got something there. On the offensive side, the emergence of Jay Bruce will continue. The Reds are becoming a solid ballclub. A year away.
4. Houston Astros – The Astros seem to only be able to put together halves of years. I’m sure this year will be no different. They have a lot of holes. Definitely have some talent on this club with Berkman and Oswalt but not enough of a supporting cast. I think Hunter Pence will continue his progress, and become a potential All Star.
5. St. Louis Cardinals – The Cardinals are kind of mess. Another case of great talent wasted. Albert Pujols is the best hitter in baseball, but the Cards can’t seem to put a team around him. The addition of Khalil Greene and the return of Chris Carpenter will help, but just don’t have the horses.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates – Perrenial basement dwellers. The Pirates are a small market team that just can’t compete. It’s actually a little sad.

Is it “Next Year” yet?

I sure hope so. Getting swept out of the playoffs was pretty rough in 2007. To see it happen again in 2008 was just inexcusable. The Cubs agree. They have taken steps to ensure their ball club can compete in October. Below is the projected starting lineup for the 2009 Cubs. It looks a little different than last year, but also has a lot of familiar faces.

Numbers in parenthesis are my projected stats for 2009.

Catcher – Geovany Soto (.290/25 HR/90 RBI) – Reigning Rookie of the Year will improve on a stellar rookie campaign. He will have protection in this lineup so he should continue to see good pitches. I think another standout year as the best offensive catcher isn’t out of the question for Soto.

First base – Derrek Lee (.300/18 HR/78 RBI) – Entering his 13 MLB season DLee has some mileage on him. I would say that as a hitter he’s on the downside of his career. His 2008 stats .291/20/91 were about the same as his 2007 stats .317/22/82. I think that he’ll stay close to those numbers but there will be a slight decline.

Second base – Mike Fontenot (.295/12 HR/60 RBI) – Fontenot’s playing time was limited by the presence of Mark DeRosa. Fontenot only played in 82 games, starting only 49 of those. So this looks like it will be his job to lose. The Cubs brought in Aaron Miles to be a utility infielder. He would fill in if Fontenot falters. Fontenot is a bottom of the lineup guy, but he’s shown that he can get the extra base hit. Of his 74 hits last year, 32 of them went for extra bases. Last year he had an OBP of .395 and SLG of .514 putting him in the top 20 in the National League for both of those stats. Pretty impressive for a 5′8″, 170lb second baseman.

Shortstop – Ryan Theriot (.302/30 SB) – In 2008 Ryan Theriot learned how to take a walk. His walk rate jumped from 49 in 2007 to 73 in 2008. This helped boost his OBP from a shabby .326 to a solid .387. He also improved his batting average from .266 to .307. The Riot looks like he’s learning to be a Major League hitter. He’ll never knock your socks off with his offense, but if he can get on base, he is able to steal a few bases (averaging 25 over the last two years).

Third base – Aramis Ramirez (.305/32 HR/115 RBI) – Aramis has shown that when he presses, he’s a lot less effective. When DLee was hurt he had to step into a role as a leader. He pressed and his play suffered. Thankfully for the Cubs, there are more guys around him to help pick up the slack if someone should go down. With heavy hitters like Soriano, Bradley and to a lesser degree Derrek Lee, he doesn’t have to provide all of the pop for the Cubs. When he’s not pressing, he can straight crush it. There were MVP whispers last year. I think they’ll continue this year.

Rightfield – Milton Bradley (.315/20 HR/80 RBI) – It was a questionable move bringing in Bradley. First off, the guy can hit. Can he effectively patrol rightfield at Wrigley? I don’t know. He’s only played more than 100 games in the outfield once in his 9 year career. And then there’s his maturity level. Here is where I hope having a manager like Lou really helps. Maybe he can work with Bradley and give him some guidance. We know Lou has experience with some pretty tough customers.

Centerfield – Kosuke Fukudome/Reed Johnson (.270/12 HR/60 RBI combined) – Kosuke Fukudome fell off the face of the planet the second half of 2008. Let’s call it his transition to MLB. I think he’ll make a strong return in 2008 in a new OF position due to the aquisition of Milton Bradley. Reed Johnson is suitable to platoon in centerfield with Fukudome. This will be an interesting place to watch. If both Fukudome and Johnson slip, Joey Gathright, another offseason signing, is ready to play every day.

Leftfield – Alfonso Soriano (.285/32 HR/90 RBI/15 SB) – The 33 year old Soriano is bound to start showing his age. It might not be in his power stats, but in the field, and on the basepaths the Cubs will see a decline. He’s still a dominant force in the Cubs lineup (whether he hits leadoff or lower in the lineup). Health is a major concern as well. He has had extended periods on the DL in recent years. If he can stay healthy most of the season I expect a monster year from him.

Starting Rotation – Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly and one of any number of #5 starters. There will be pretty tough competition for the fifth spot in the rotation between Sean Marshall, Jeff Samardzija, Garrett Olson and maybe even Rich Hill if he can ever find his command. If the top 4 can maintain their form the Cubs starting rotation will be one of the best in baseball. Dempster and Lilly had career years last year, so I expect that there will be a drop off from them. Carlos Zambrano had offseason laser eye surgery and he has continued to mature so I think he’ll have a solid year. I always worry about Big Z’s innings but hopefully Lou will be worrying about that too. They have a good (potentially great) rotation, but it’s not super deep. They have some servicable arms to come in if there’s an injury but no one that’s beating down the door to make a name for himself.

Bullpen – Carlos Marmol, Kevin Gregg, Luis Vizcaino, Jeff Samardzija and a whole host of others make this a real strength for the Cubs. They lost a very important piece of their team and bullpen in Kerry Wood. He will be missed on the field and in the clubhouse, but the guys manning the pen will hold up just fine.

Brian Kersey/AP

Sunday, the Cubs traded away once prized prospect Felix Pie. Pie joined the Cubs as an undrafted free agent in 2001 and played his first game in the Majors in 2007. Pie was once thought of as the best prospect in the Cubs system, but never really lived up to his potential at the Major League level. Pie is only 23 but the Cubs jut couldn’t wait. He was out of options, so they Cubs either had to keep him on the Major League roster or allow some other team to sign him. They weren’t going to mak that mistake. I think the Cubs viewed him as a AAAA player. Someone who excels at AAA but just can’t hack it in MLB.

That’s not the Cubs problem anymore, it’s time for the Orioles to worry about that. The Orioles gave up left haned pitcher Garrett Olson and pitching prospect Henry Williamson. Olson started 26 games for the Orioles and went 9-10 with a 6.65 ERA. I don’t think he’ll crack the Cubs starting rotation, but he does add a lefty to the bullpen.

It’s a curious move for the Orioles though. Just last off-season, they traded their ace Erik Bedard to the Mariners for their top centerfield prospect Adam Jones. The Orioles outfield is pretty clogged as it is. Now they add Pie to the mix. The Orioles continue to run a very strange ball club.

I think this will prove to be a good move by Jim Hendry and the Cubs. I haven’t been in love with Pie, and they had to get something for him. Now we’ll see what happens to Angel Guzman.

The Chicago Cubs signed free agent Ryan Dempster to a 4 year deal worth $52 million. The fourth year of the deal is a player option. Dempster is 31 years old right now and has battled some injuries in the past. Dempster was 17-6 last season with an ERA of 2.96. During the regular season he was 10-0 at home. 2008 was a career year for Dempster. His timing couldn’t have been better.

I have mixed feelings about the length of this deal. Given his age, this is a risky move. If the Cubs didn’t give him the 4 year deal, he probably would have gone somewhere else. I think Jim Hendry did a good job of balancing the investment in Ryan Dempster. Lately it has been the older pitchers in the league that have been dominant, so 35 isn’t too old. Dempster also has spent a lot of time in the bullpen so he doesn’t have a ton of innings logged. In his 11 year career he’s only averaged 157.3 innings per year. Other players who debuted in 1998 like Dempster have considerably more innings pitched per year (Roy Halladay – 229.3, Javier Vasquez – 218.0, Jarrod Washburn 206.3).

Will Dempster continue to be a vital top of the rotation pitcher for 4 more years? I doubt it, but I think the cost of losing him would have been even greater than $52 million.

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The Cubs agreed to trade for a pitcher Thursday, but it wasn’t Jake Peavy. The Cubs send minor-league reliever Jose Ceda to the Florida Marlins for their closer Kevin Gregg. The acquisition of Gregg lowers the likelihood that the Cubs will re-sign Kerry Wood. I’m not too broken up about that. I love Woody, and think that he has been a great Cub over the years. He’s going to be a high-priced closer that the Cubs just don’t need at his price tag.

Gregg was 62 saves with an ERA of 4.00 in 271 appearances. And that was for the Marlins. I think his tenure with the Cubs will be more successful. I’m not a huge fan of getting rid of a promising prospect, but Gregg has a proven track record in the majors.

As of right now, it looks like the Braves will land the Cy Young winning right-hander. The Cubs probably don’t have enough down on the farm to entice the Padres. Word is that Peavy would prefer to come to the Cubs over the Braves. And I don’t blame him. The Cubs are close, the Braves, not so much.

The deal that apparently is on the table is Pie/Cedeno/Marshall. If that is in fact the deal, I say do it, yesterday. I’ve also heard reports that Ryan Theriot is on the list instead of Cedeno. I have a little hesitation about that one, but still would want to do it.

All that being said, trading for Jake Peavy should not be the most important thing this offseason. They definitely need to shore up their rotation. Either Peavy, Dempster, Derek Lowe or AJ Burnett would be great. More important this offseason is a left-handed bat. A lefty right fielder needs to be a priority for Jim Hendry.

*** UPDATE ***
Thanks to commenter Jared who points us to the newly released MLB.com store featuring the Phillies World Series Ear Flap Caps.

There has been a lot of buzz about the hats that the Rays have been wearing in Philadelphia. People want to know how to get their hands on them. I have looked around and have only found some New Era caps that are similar. They are called the Downflap 39THIRTY Cap. They are not official MLB game caps (no MLB logo on the back), but it’s a good start.

Apparently the caps were unveiled in Spring Training and now that the weather is terrible in Philly, the  Rays are wearing them. I think they look great. I’m definitely interested in getting my hands on one. This year I sat in the snow on Opening Day here in Seattle.

There are some caps on MLB.com available for the Blue Jays, Red Sox, White Sox, Yankees and Mets, but I couldn’t find any for the Phillies, Rays or more importantly the Cubs and Mariners. Because of the huge demand for these caps, I’m sure that New Era and MLB will sell and market the crap out of these hats. There’s something about Joe Maddon, with his black-rimmed glasses and the Elmer Fudd ear flap hat that hearkens back to yesteryear.

2008 brought us a lot of surprises from the baseball diamond. First of all, the Tampa Bay Rays played in the World Series. Less surprising were the eventual World Series Champions, the Philadelphia Phillies. As for my teams, there were differing levels of disappointment.

Seattle Mariners
They were all about disappointment in 2008. From Opening Day, Erik Bedard disappointed. Carlos Silva, Richie Sexson and even Ichiro disappointed fans, teammates and management. First John McLaren was fired, then Bill Bavasi, and then late in the season the clubhouse was rife with discontent. Seattle was not a good place for baseball in 2008.

Chicago Cubs
In typical Cubs fashion, hopes were raised and excitement generated only to be deflated come October. The Cubs ended up winning 97 games and taking the NL Central by 7 1/2 games. All systems go heading into October. But then they laid another egg in the NLDS, causing me to wonder if Lou still has it.

One thing is for sure, both clubs have a lot of work to do in the off-season to get set up for 2009. Make no mistake, expectations for both clubs will be high next year. The Mariners, as an organization, need to rebound and get on track towards winning, and the Cubs need to figure out how to win in October.

Good move. The reason the Cubs have been swept out of the last 2 seasons is not Hendry’s fault. He’s been the architect of teams that have reached the playoffs in back-to-back years and won more games than any other Cubs team since 1945.

The Cubs need to keep Hendry, but need to make sure to not get stuck in an Atlanta Braves type holding pattern at the top of the division. I want the World Series. I even take getting out of the first round of the playoffs. Congrats to Jim Hendry and congrats to the Cubs for having the insight to keep this guy around.