These teams are in unfamiliar territory. They both enter this game following a loss. Last week Michigan lost to Wisconsin on the road, and the then number 1 ranked Buckeyes got upset when they visited the Fighting Illini. The last time Michigan came into the OSU game following a loss was 1996 (they lost to Penn State) and the last time Ohio State came into the game after losing was 1987 (when they lost to Iowa). The last time both teams entered the game following a loss was 1959. The Wolverines were led by first year coach Bump Elliott and Woody Hayes was just in his 9th year at the helm for the Buckeyes. Incidentally, Michigan won that game 23-14.

As usual, there is a lot at stake in this years game for both Michigan and Ohio State. Michigan can salvage a tough season by taking care of the Buckeyes at home, and Ohio State can maintain their recent dominance (folks, it’s just hard for me to say) over Michigan. Since Jim Tressel took over for John Cooper, the Wolverines have only been victorious once against their bitter rivals. That fact adds another layer of complexity to this years game.

There has been a lot of speculation about Lloyd Carr’s future. Most believe that if he (and Michigan) lose this game against OSU that he will lose his job. And he probably should. 1-7 is not acceptable against Ohio State. After Michigan started the season with it’s historic loss to IAA Appalachian State, followed by a drubbing by Oregon, they ran off 8 straight wins.

Michigan has definitely seen better days. They are banged up all over the place. Mike Hart, Chad Henne are both questionable for Saturday’s game. Historically, that has not been a good sign. Mike Hart is the leader of this team. Other people have had to step into that role because throughout his career he has consistently struggled to stay on the field (something that will hurt his chances to play on Sunday). While Hart has been out, his replacements Travis Minor and Carlos Brown have filled in admirably. Their biggest downfall is that they’re not Mike Hart. They’ve both played well. They haven’t stepped into the leadership role that Hart has.

Since Chad Henne went down, first with a knee injury and then with a shoulder problem, freshman phenom Ryan Mallett has stepped into the role of starting quarterback and seems to be developing into the teams leader. I love this for next year. This year, I can just remember the 2 picks that he threw at Wisconsin. If Henne and Hart can’t go on Saturday, Mallett needs to win this game. If he does, he’ll be the toast of the town. If he blows it, he’ll be the goat (hopefully that won’t stop him from progressing).

No matter who lines up under center, they need to get the ball to Mario Manningham on the outside. No one has been able to stop the deep out this season. For some reason Lloyd Carr and Mike DeBord have not exploited that. The play is set up with the running game. For the most part Michigan hasn’t had trouble getting that set up. Once the running game has been established, on every series they need to call Mannigham’s number. He’s the top wide out in the country. Let him prove it.

On the defensive side of the ball, Michigan has made marked improvements. Donovan Warren still scares the hell out me at corner. All that I hear about him is comparisons to other Michigan corners who started as a freshman (Ty Law, Charles Woodson and Marlin Jackson). I just want to let everyone know. He’s not that good yet. He might get there… but those guys dominated, even as freshman. Warren has showed some potential, but he’s been exposed as much as he’s dominated. Other than Warren, I think the defense has progressed nicely. Shawn Crable is amazing. The rest of the defense is getting the job done. Nothing too outstanding, but they’re playing well.

Notice I haven’t mentioned Ohio State’s team this year. It’s mostly because I don’t care. But to give them unequal time… James Laurinaitis is the best college linebacker (sorry Shawn Crable). Their defense was really stout heading into last week’s game against Illinois, but the Buckeyes come out of Champaign with a lot of video evidence that they can be beat. I would imagine Lloyd and the boys have watched that a few times.

On offense the Buckeyes feature Beanie Wells, Todd Boeckman and Brian Robiskie. Of the three, Beanie Wells is the best. He’s a powerful downhill runner with a burst. Boeckman and Robiskie have stepped into their roles this year and have been servicable. They haven’t set the world on fire, but the haven’t laid any eggs either. What worries me is the tackling of Michigan against Wells. If he breaks a couple long runs, Shawn Crable is gonna get tired.

Time to get to the nut-cuttin. This is a game that features the two best teams in the Big Ten (no surprise there), both are having off years. Hard to say that with OSU being ranked number 1 for a few weeks this year, but they have lost a ton of guys to the NFL. They were number 1 because no one else has been able to hold onto it.

Keys to the Game

• Turnovers - Whoever has the edge in turnovers wins the game. If Michigan can force Boeckman to give it up, or Mallett gives a repeat performance, their teams will suffer.
• Henne and Hart - With them, Michigan is the better team, without them, Michigan will struggle to move the ball.
• Manningham deep - If Michigan can get the ball to Manningham on the outside, it won’t be close.

My prediction
Ohio State 17
Michigan 24

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This entry was posted on Thursday, November 15th, 2007 at 12:51 pm and is filed under College Football, Michigan Wolverines. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.